Carney has large and risky job ahead of him on Washington visit, former officials say
加拿大总理 马克·卡尼（Mark Carney） 将于今晚启程前往华盛顿，与美国总统 唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump） 举行会谈。
此次访问聚焦于关税与安全议题，但渥太华方面已提前“降温预期”——前政府官员警告，卡尼此行“任务艰巨、风险极高”。
Prime Minister Mark Carney heads to Washington on Monday to meet U.S. President Donald Trump for talks on tariffs and security.
Canadian officials have set expectations low, warning that this is likely to be a tense and high-risk visit.
🇨🇦【白宫会晤：偶遇促成的“工作访问”】
A Working Visit Born from a UN Encounter
据知情人士透露，此次白宫会晤起因于上月联合国大会期间的偶遇，双方临时决定进行更深入会谈。
这将是卡尼上任以来第二次与特朗普面对面。上次虽未打破贸易僵局，但成功避免冲突。
The meeting was arranged after the two leaders crossed paths at the United Nations last month.
It will be Carney’s second meeting with Trump since taking office — his first ended without progress, but without confrontation.
🇨🇦【前外交官警告：任务艰难且高风险】
Former Officials Warn: A Large and Risky Job Ahead
前美国驻加拿大大使 凯莉·克拉夫特（Kelly Craft） 表示，卡尼必须在此次会面中提出一揽子贸易与安全方案。
她说：“责任在卡尼身上，必须让僵局画上句号。”
Former U.S. ambassador Kelly Craft said Carney must strike a comprehensive deal that includes trade, security, and defence spending.
“It’s incumbent on Carney to bring this to an end,” Craft said.
🇨🇦【钢铁关税成首要战场】
Steel Tariffs a Top Priority for Canada
前特鲁多政府副幕僚长 布莱恩·克劳（Brian Clow） 指出，加拿大钢铁业是最大受害者。
特朗普政府以《贸易扩张法》第232条为依据，对加国钢铁和铝征收高达50%的关税，令企业“几乎无法生存”。
Brian Clow, former deputy chief of staff to Justin Trudeau, said Canada’s steel sector has been “devastated” by Trump’s 50% tariffs, making survival impossible without major government support.
🇨🇦【美加关系仍陷冷淡：期望不高】
Few Expect a Breakthrough
加拿大铝业协会主席 Jean Simard 表示，他不期待卡尼能带回任何协议，但认为这次访问对“维持关系”至关重要。
“最理想的情况，是特朗普能释放一个信号，让团队重新聚焦美加议程。”
Jean Simard, CEO of the Aluminum Association of Canada, said no breakthroughs are expected but called the trip important for “nurturing the relationship.”
🇨🇦【特朗普政府：三方协定或将被拆分】
U.S. May Shift Away from a Trilateral Deal
美国贸易代表 贾米森·格里尔（Jamieson Greer） 表示，未来美方将与加拿大、墨西哥分别谈判，而非维持三边协定。
他称：“美加关系与美墨关系完全不同……未来我们将更多进行一对一谈判。”
Jamieson Greer, the U.S. Trade Representative, signaled Washington may move away from the trilateral USMCA model, opting for separate negotiations with Canada and Mexico.
🇨🇦【克拉夫特：加拿大已失去特朗普信任】
Trump’s Allies Question Canada’s Reliability
克拉夫特指出：“英国、韩国、日本都能与特朗普达成贸易协议，唯独加拿大做不到。因为他认为加拿大‘不可靠’——在中东问题上甚至成了障碍。”
她还批评加拿大承认巴勒斯坦国的举动被特朗普视为“对哈马斯的奖赏”。
Kelly Craft said Trump views Canada as “an unreliable ally” — even “an obstacle” on Middle East peace — especially after Ottawa’s recognition of a Palestinian state.
🇨🇦【中国议题成新导火索】
China Trade Policy Adds Tension
克拉夫特进一步批评，加拿大正试图让更多“中国产零部件”进入美国市场，这违反了USMCA增加北美制造含量的宗旨。
“加拿大必须停止帮助中国利用转运渠道向美国倾销。”
Craft accused Ottawa of undermining USMCA by allowing Chinese-made parts into U.S. markets, calling for tighter alignment with Washington’s China policy.
🇨🇦【特朗普关税清单：一波接一波】
Trump’s Tariff List Keeps Growing
自今年重新入主白宫以来，特朗普对加拿大加征关税：
| 项目 | 税率 | 备注 |
|---|---|---|
| 钢铁与铝 | 50% | Section 232 |
| 汽车 | 25% | 美国产零件除外 |
| 非USMCA商品 | 35% | 石油、天然气、钾肥10% |
| 软木木材 | 超过45% | 9月30日再加10% |
Since returning to the White House, Trump has slapped multiple tariffs on Canada — 50% on steel and aluminum, 25% on autos, and a total of over 45% on softwood lumber.
🇨🇦【结语：这是一场外交“耐力赛”】
Conclusion: A Diplomatic Endurance Test
多位前外交官指出，卡尼此行的真正目标并非“达成协议”，而是“防止局势恶化”。
正如一位前顾问所说：
“这不是一场谈判，而是一场耐力战。卡尼必须让特朗普相信，加拿大依然值得做生意。”
In the words of one former adviser:
“This is not a negotiation — it’s an endurance test. Carney must convince Trump that Canada is still worth dealing with.”
